JRSSEM 2022, Vol. 01, No. 7, 759 – 766

E-ISSN: 2807 - 6311, P-ISSN: 2807 - 6494

DOI : 10.36418/jrssem.v1i7.95

ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF SUBMARINE

OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES ON THE STATE OF

DETERRENCE

Timbul Haryanto AR

A. Octavian

Romie O. Bura

1,2,3

Indonesia Defense University

e-mail: toni1976[email protected]

, amarulla.octavi[email protected]c.id

, romiebura@idu.ac.id

*Correspondence: toni[email protected]

Submitted: 26 January 2022, Revised: 5 February 2022, Accepted: 16 February 2022

Abstract. Indonesia is an archipelagic state whose territory lies in a cross position between two

continents and two oceans. So that Indonesia has the authority to maintain the security of its

maritime territory, starting from regulating its shipping lanes to maintaining sovereignty in all of

Indonesia's sea areas. Indonesia's threats have been identified as coming from neighboring

countries, namely Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and China. Increasing escalation in the South

China Sea area, Efforts to support Indonesian territorial security, submarines currently owned must

be able to become a deterrent against potential threats both from within and from outside and be

able to operate in all Indonesian waters. The hypothesis in this study is if the operational capability

of the submarine increases the country's deterrence system. The methodology used is descriptive

quantitative using software SPSS 25 and Microsoft Excel 2013 with data analysis techniques using

multivariate correlation. The effect of submarine operational capability on the country's deterrence

is 86.6% that implies submarine operational capability has strong influence.

Keywords: operational capability; deterrence; SPSS

Timbul Haryanto AR, A Octavian, Romie O. Bura                                                                   | 760 
 
DOI : 10.36418/jrssem.v1i7.95 
INTRODUCTION 
 
The  Unitary  State  of  the  Republic  of 
Indonesia (NKRI) is an archipelagic country 
with  80%  of  the  sea  and  an  area  of 
5,800,000  km2  with  a  coastline  of  80,791 
km  stretching  across  two  continents, 
namely the Asian continent. The Australian 
continent,  and  is  located  between  two 
oceans, namely the Indian Ocean and the 
Pacific  Ocean  (Stuut,  Temmesfeld,  &  De 
Deckker, 2014). So that Indonesia has the 
authority  to  maintain  the  security  of  its 
maritime territory, starting from regulating 
its  shipping  lanes  to  maintaining 
sovereignty in all of Indonesia's sea areas. 
Indonesia  as  the  largest  archipelagic 
maritime  country  in  the  world 
(Rochwulaningsih, Sulistiyono, Masruroh, & 
Maulany,  2019),  should  strengthen  its 
ability  to  secure  a  very  wide  territorial 
waters, in order to ensure the security and 
safety  of  shipping  in  all  waters  of 
Indonesian jurisdiction which is  a  form  of 
our  responsibility  as  an  archipelagic 
country  (Nurdin  &  Grydehøj,  2014). 
Indonesia's threats have been identified as 
coming  from  neighboring  countries, 
namely Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and 
China. Several disputes that have occurred 
between  Indonesia  and  these  countries 
(Dipua  et  al.,  2020),  especially  in  the 
territorial  waters  have  influenced 
Indonesia's perspective on threat priorities 
and the development of defense strategies. 
The  geographical  constellation  of 
Indonesia  (Neilson,  Wright, &  Aklimawati, 
2018),  which  has  a  large sea  area  and  an 
archipelagic state, has implications for the 
emergence  of  geopolitical  and 
geostrategic  challenges.  The  South  China 
Sea  (SCS)  is  a  very  vital  area  for  the 
Government of Indonesia, this is because in 
the region there are many instruments and 
a  realistic  spectrum,  such  as  state 
sovereignty,  economy,  politics,  and  the 
military. In terms of sovereignty, there are 
several countries that claim their territory in 
the  South  China  Sea  (Dupuy  &  Dupuy, 
2013).  From  a  political  point  of  view,  the 
SCS will always be the object of the relevant 
country's  strategic  policies  to  be  able  to 
influence  the  dynamics  of  the  region. 
Another  problem  is  the  Indonesian 
maritime boundary with Australia. The legal 
status of the  maritime boundary between 
Indonesia  and  Australia  has  not  been 
ratified  or  ratified  (Forbes,  2014).  Both 
countries have determined the boundaries 
of  the  exclusive  economic  zone  but  have 
not determined the consequences for their 
violation. 
The  Indonesian  Navy  currently  has  4 
submarines of the U-209 type with a diesel-
electric propulsion system. This is an effort 
to  support  Indonesian  territorial  security. 
With the submarines currently owned, they 
must be able to become a deterrent against 
potential threats both from within and from 
outside  and  be  able  to  operate  in  all 
Indonesian waters that have  the potential 
for  conflicts  of  interest  and  sovereignty 
(Dipua et al., 2020). The magnitude of the 
effect  of  this  deterrence  depends  on  the 
ability and number of submarines owned. 
Each submarine is expected to operate in 
all waters of special concern and vulnerable 
areas.  
This study is aim to define the influece 
of submarine operational capabilies on the 
state of deterrence so that can be used as 
refferances    to  increase  the  quality  and 

761 | Analysis of the Influence of Submarine Operational Capabilities on the State of

Deterrence

quantity of submarine.

METHODS

This study uses a quantitative method

with a survey design, where the data in this

study will be analyzed statistically with the

help of SPSS. The result of the statistical

data is to find out whether there is an

influence between the variables in

question. In survey design, researchers

describe quantitatively (numbers) several

tendencies, behaviors, or opinions of a

population by examining a sample of the

population (Creswell & Poth, 2016).

The survey design was carried out by

distributing questionnaires or

questionnaires (Auerbach et al., 2018).

Based on the method and design of this

research, the research was carried out using

theories and concepts as a guide for

researchers so that the research was

directed. Then phenomena that occur in

the field appear and are compared so that

problems arise, identify problems and limit

problems, by making hypotheses as

evidence. Conduct hypothesis testing by

distributing questionnaires, analyzing the

data obtained with statistics, and after

knowing the results are juxtaposed with

theories to be analyzed, analyzed and

discussed, and finally draw conclusions.

The place of research was carried out at

the Submarine Unit of the Indonesian Fleet

Command II Surabaya (Bastari, Sukandari,

Widjayanto, & Hutabarat, 2020), which

consisted of entities related to submarine

operations, namely submarine crews and

submarine management support staff who

served in the submarine unit.

The sampling technique used in this

study was proportionate stratified random

sampling because it came from a

population with experience strata. The

number of samples can be determined

using the Slovin formula with an error rate

of 5%. From a total population of 164

personnel, it can be determined that the

number of samples is 84 personnel.

In collecting data the researchers used

the following techniques: a)

Questionnaires. The research instrument or

questionnaire in this study used a Likert

scale (Chomeya, 2010), which is a scale

used to measure attitudes, opinions, and

perceptions of a person or group of people

about social phenomena (Pardjono,

Sugiyono, & Budiyono, 2015). In this study,

submarines can operate strategically in

waters that are difficult to detect their

presence. The biggest challenge in finding

the existence of a submarine is due to its

operational environmental factors rather

than technological factors which are

measured based on indicators: natural

factors, protrusion, base and condition of

the ship; b) Questionnaire. Questionnaire is

an information gathering tool by

submitting a number of written questions

to be answered in writing by the

respondents (Syukri, Rizal, & Al Hamdani,

2019). In this study, it was used to obtain

data and information from respondents

about operational capability (variable X)

with the country's deterrence system

(variable Y). Questionnaires were

distributed to the personnel of the

Koarmada II submarine unit, with a total of

43 statement items, namely 20 items

regarding submarine operational

Timbul Haryanto AR, A Octavian, Romie O. Bura | 762

capabilities and 23 items regarding the

country's deterrence system.

Based on questionnaire that distributed

and answered, the data process is using

simple linear regression through SPSS

which is data analysis to describe influence

of the submarine operational capabilities

on the state of deterrence.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

A. Simple Linear Regression Analysis

Simple

linear regression analysis was used

to create a simple equation between

the Operational Capability (X) variable

and the Deterrence Strength (Z)

variable. In addition, this simple linear

regression analysis is also used to see

the linear relationship between the

operational ability variable (Y) and the

deterrence variable (Z). Below is paired

data for X and Y variables. The results of

simple linear regression analysis of

variables X against Y with the SPSS

program, can be seen in table 1 below:

Table 1. Simple Linear Regression Test Results for Operational Ability (X) on Resilience (Y)

Coefficients

Model

Unstandardize

d Coefficients

Standardize

Coefficients

Sig.

Collinearity

Statistics

Std.

Error

Beta

Toleranc

VIF

(Constant)

56,228

2,418

23,25

0.00

Operational

Capability

0.543

0.049

0.774

11.05

0.00

1,000

a. Dependent Variable: Deterrence

Source: processed by researchers using SPSS

The simple linear regression

formula is Z = a + b4Y. Z is an effect

variable, a is a constant, b is a

regression coefficient, and X is a causal

variable. Based on the results of the

regression test in Table 1, Y is the

Deterrence variable, a = 56.228, b =

0.543, and Y is Operational Ability. So

the form of a simple linear regression

equation is Y = 56,228 + 0,543X.

B. Correlation Coefficient Analysis

Correlation

Coefficient analysis was used to

determine the level of closeness of the

relationship between the Operational

Ability (X) variable and the Deterrence

Power variable (Y). The results of the

correlation coefficient between the

variables X to Y, the calculation of the

correlation coefficient of the variables X

to Y with the SPSS program can be seen

in table 2 below:

Timbul Haryanto AR, A Octavian, Romie O. Bura | 763

DOI : 10.36418/jrssem.v1i7.95

Table 2. Correlation Coefficient between Operational Capability (X) against(Y)

Correlations

Deterre

nceDet

errence

Power

Operational

Ability

Pearson

Correlation

Powerdesist

1.000

0.774

Operational

capability

0.774

1.000

Sig. (1-tailed)

Deterrence

0.000

Operational

Capability

0.000

Deterrence

Operational

Capability

Source: processed by researchers using SPSS The

Relationship between Operational

Capability and Deterrence can be seen

from the value of Sig. In Table 2 the

significant value is known to be 0.000 <

0.01. This means that there is a positive

and very significant relationship.

Meanwhile, to find out the magnitude

and strength of the relationship

between the Deterrence (Y) variable

and the Operational Ability (X) variable,

it can be seen in the Pearson

Correlation line where the relationship

between the two variables is 0.774 so it

can be said that there is a strong

relationship or correlation.

C. Analysis of the Coefficient of

Determination

Analysis of the coefficient of

determination R Square is used to find

out how much the value of Operational

Capability (Y) affects Deterrence (Z).

The results of the coefficient of

determination between the variable Y

to Z, the calculation of the coefficient of

determination of the variable Y to Z

using SPSS can be seen in Table 3

below:

Table 3. Coefficient of Determination between Operational Capability (X) against

Deterrence (Y)

Model Summary

Model

Square

Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of the

Estimate

774

0.866

0.594

2.448

Timbul Haryanto AR, A Octavian, Romie O. Bura | 764

a. Predictors: (Constant), Operational Capability

b. Dependent Variable: Deterrence

Source: processed by researchers using SPSS

R Square value or coefficient of

determination will be converted into

percent. In Table 3 the R Square value is

obtained at 0.866 or 86.6%, meaning

that the Operational Ability (X) variable

affects the Deterrence Power (Y)

variable by 86.6% while the rest is

influenced by other variables not

calculated in this study.

D. Hypothesis Testing This

Discussion consists of two

hypotheses, namely H0 the variable

Operational Ability (Y) does not have a

direct positive effect on Deterrence (Z).

While H1 the Operational Ability

variable (Y) has a direct positive effect

on Deterrence (Z). The hypothesis test

provisions are if tcount > ttable then H0

is rejected. This shows that operational

capability has a direct and significant

effect on deterrence. Meanwhile, if

tcount ttable then H0 is accepted. This

shows that operational capability has a

direct and significant effect on

deterrence. Based on table 4.46, the

value of tcount is 11,056 and ttable is at

a significance level of 5% and degrees

of freedom (df) = n-2 = 84-2 = 82 so

that a ttable of 1.661 is obtained. So,

based on these calculations, it is

obtained that tcount = 11.056> ttable

= 1.661, which means H0 is rejected

and H1 is accepted. So it can be

concluded that Operational Capability

(Y) has a direct and significant effect on

Deterrence (Z).

KRI's operational capabilities in

waters are faced with vulnerabilities

that often occur, including violations,

geological conditions consisting of

thousands of islands and shallow

straits, extreme weather and limited

state defense budget conditions.

Therefore, it is very necessary to have

the right KRI and ready to face these

challenges and obstacles in order to

make the deterrence power of the

Indonesian state. (Arimbo, Suparno,

Ahmadi, & Krisdiono, 2021).

Based on the results of the study,

the correlation coefficient of

operational ability variables (X)

together has a strong and positive

relationship with deterrence (Y) of

0.884. The results of the coefficient of

determination of operational ability (X)

contributed 86.6% to deterrence (Y). In

addition, testing the hypothesis also

shows that there is a direct and

significant effect and operational

capability with deterrence as shown in

the results Fcount = 127,534 > Ftable =

2,179, meaning that Sewaco, platform,

base and operational capability

together have a direct positive effect on

deterrence.

The results of this study support the

deterrence theory above that

operational capabilities include natural

factors, protrusion, base and ship

conditions. Diving can affect the

country's defense system. The results of

the study are also in line with previous

research conducted by (Arimbo et al.,

765 | Analysis of the Influence of Submarine Operational Capabilities on the State of

Deterrence

2021), which explains that there is a

direct effect of submarine operational

capability on deterrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyzing the relationship between

external, internal and operational factors of

submarines on the deterrence of the

national defense system. The multiple

regression equation for the variable X with

Y is Y = 56.228 + 0.543X. The correlation

coefficient factors for the operational

capability variable (X) affect the Deterrence

(Y) of 0.931. The results of the operational

capability determination coefficient (X)

contributed 86.6% to the Deterrence (Y) of

which the remaining 14.4% was influenced

by other variables. In addition, testing the

hypothesis also shows that there is a direct

effect of operational ability (X) with

deterrence (Y) which is shown in the results

of Fcount = 127.534 > Ftable = 1.663 which

means that operational ability has a direct

positive effect on deterrence.

This study clarified that submarines can

contribute to increasing the deterrence of

the country's defense system at sea.

Ownership of 4 submarines that exist today

can increase a strong deterrence in the face

of threats that endanger the country.

Indonesia's priority threats, such as border

violations in territorial waters, the growing

defense power of neighboring countries

and other maritime threats raise the

urgency of the need for submarines for

Indonesia. Submarines have a high

maneuverability that serves to spy on the

enemy without being noticed, making it

very effective to deal with border violations

and other maritime threats.

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