JRSSEM 2021, Vol. 01, No.5, 559 – 571
E-ISSN: 2807 - 6311, P-ISSN: 2807 - 6494
DOI : 10.36418/jrssem.v1i5.47
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING INDONESIAN COFFEE
EXPORTS IN 2001-2018 USING THE VECTOR
AUTOREGRESSION (VAR) APPROACH
Diandra Locita Sari 1*
Sugeng Hadi Utomo 2
Agus Sumanto 3
1, 2, 3 Faculty of Economics, State University of Malang
E-mail: Locita.laras6@gmail.com 1, sugeng.hadi.fe@um.ac.id 2, agus.sumanto.fe@um.ac.id 3
*Correspondence: Locita.laras6@gmail.com 1
Submitted: 17 November 2021, Revised: 11 December 2021, Accepted: 14 December 2021
Abstrak. Coffee exports are influenced by the exchange rate, the price of coffee and the amount
of production. The purpose of the study was to determine the short-term and long-term
relationship between coffee exports in 2001-2018. The research method is quantitative descriptive
using classical assumption test and Error Correlation Model (ECM). The results of the VAR study are
that coffee exports are not affected by coffee prices, coffee production and the rupiah exchange
rate. Coffee exports were not significantly affected by coffee production, coffee prices and the
exchange rate (exchange rate) using VAR. result Grangger's is that coffee production affects
coffee exports and the exchange rate affects coffee exports. Test IRF and VD is the coffee
production is influenced by coffee prices and the exchange rate, the price of coffee affects the
production of coffee, coffee exports and the exchange rate and the exchange rate is influenced
by the price of coffee and coffee exports. As for advice because coffee production affects
coffee exports from Indonesia then, the government should do a vertical integration from
upstream (people's plantations) to downstream (industries) to increase export expansion.
Keywords: coffee exports, exchange rates, coffee prices, coffee production, VAR.
Diandra Locita Sari, Sugeng Hadi Utomo, Agus Sumanto | 560
DOI : 10.36418/jrssem.v1i5.47
INTRODUCTION
In a country that adheres to an open
economic system, it cannot be separated
from international interactions, one of the
activities of which is international trade
which includes exports and imports. In the
midst of increasing coffee consumption
globally, the issue of coffee commodities
should be a point of concern for the
government. In the era of openness and
trade liberalization, the flow of goods and
services is getting higher and higher so that
almost no country still uses a closed
economic system. International trade has a
very important influence on economic
development, especially in seeking funds to
finance the increasing development (Purba
et al., 2021). Local coffee farmers object to
the policy, as it tends to under-asses the
quality for foreign exchange of its coffee.
This is more because small and medium-
sized businesses do not have adequate
processing technology. In addition, the raw
materials and products needed by industry
and society cannot be entirely met
domestically, sometimes they have to bring
in goods from abroad (imported) to meet
domestic needs. Then the goods produced
in the country will also need to share the
broader market, namely the foreign
markets (exports) which is intended as
income countries (foreign exchange)
In a year the coffee harvest is only
once. Farmers will face the challenge of
managing the expenditures obtain from
the coffee harvest. Usually if not in the
harvest period, coffee farmers turn to other
businesses such as growth bananas to
become traders.
Indonesia is currently increasing
production of oil and gas exports and non-
oil in order to improve the competitiveness
in international trade so as to increase
revenue nationally. Coffee is one of
Indonesia's export commodities that
generates quite high foreign exchange
(Nanda et al., 2018), because coffee is a
drink that contains quite a lot of benefits
with balanced consumption so that it is
popular in the world. Indonesia's coffee
exports in 2010-2013 were 433600 tons,
346500 tons, 448600 tons, and 534000
tons. The Export value of coffee is $983998,
$1303494, $1566805 and $1468261 (Badan
Pusat Statistik, 2013). But at the present
time decreased Indonesian coffee exports
to the united states as much as 34 % from
January to November 2018 to USD $ 734,73
million (Badan Pusat Statistik, 2019). One of
causes in the price of coffee is local more
expensive than international coffee costs as
Vietnam USD $ 1900/tons, and exporters
prefer to sell coffee in domestic
(Kontan.co.id, n.d.)
Some factor can cause the export of
coffee in Indonesia, among others:
1. The increase in coffee production by
smallholders and state / private causes
the fulfillment of consumption and price
stability coffee, so that it can export
coffee,
2. price of coffee is expensive due to
production inefficiencies that
Indonesia's low coffee exports reduce
the country's foreign exchange, and
3. The depreciation of the rupiah increases
coffee exports causing an increase in
foreign exchange.
561 | Analysis of Factors Affecting Indonesian Coffee Exports in 2001-2018 Using The Vector
Auto regression (VAR) Approach
The focus of this study is to describe
the dynamic relationship of coffee exports
that are influenced by coffee prices, coffee
production and the rupiah exchange rate
using analysis Vector Auto regression
(VAR), and describe the relationship
between shock and forecasting on coffee
production, coffee prices and exchange
rates affecting coffee exports in 2001-2018
International Trade International
Trade is a buying and selling
transaction between several parties
involving more than one country.
International trade itself can be carried out
by individuals or groups using foreign
currency as a means of payment. When a
country carries out export and import
activities in international trade, it generates
profits. According to (Salvatore, 2014)
research states there are 3 theories about
the advantages of international trade
1. Profit Theory Absolute by Adam Smith
There is an absolute advantage that
the state has in producing goods
efficiently so that it can exchange these
goods to countries that experience
absolute losses due to inefficiency in
producing goods, so that both countries
benefit. An example is to produce one
unit of American grain and clothing
requires 8 and 4 workers. In the UK every
unit of grain and clothing, need to
employ as many as 10 and 2. Then the
superior American absolute on wheat
and English have advantages in clothing
(Bagaskoro & Imansyah, 2019).
2. Theory of Advantage Comparative by
David Ricardo
Every country can gain comparative
advantage if it can make efficiency in the
product that has the smallest absolute
loss and import the product that has the
largest absolute loss. America would
specialize in wheat and import clothing
from Britain (Siddiqui, 2018).
3. Heckscher-Ohlin Theory
Heckscher-Ohlin Theory is that
there is exporting of scarce and
expensive factors of production and
importing of cheap and cheap factors of
production. For example, developed
countries export capital and technology
to developing countries and developed
countries import low-paid labor. The
assumptions of the Heckscher-Ohlin
theory include: Two countries, two
commodities, and two factors of
production, Both countries use the same
technology, The same commodity is
labor-intensive in two countries, The
returns to scale are constant, Full
specialization in production, Equal
tastes in both countries, Perfect
competition in both commodity and
factor markets, Perfect mobility of
factors of production internally within a
country but not internationally, No
transportation costs, tariffs, or other
barriers to the free flow of international
trade, All resources are fully utilized, and
Balanced trade.
Export
Export is the process of sending goods
abroad so as to increase national income
which has an impact on increasing
production and employment (Salvatore,
2014). Coffee exporters must register with
the state because coffee exports are
Diandra Locita Sari, Sugeng Hadi Utomo, Agus Sumanto | 562
commodities that are regulated in exports
according to the regulation of the Minister
of Trade Number 01/M-DAG/PER/1/2007
dated January 22, 2007. The supply factor
for coffee exports is influenced by the price
of coffee and the amount of coffee sold.
The law of supply basically states that: the
higher the price of an item, the more
quantity of the item will be offered by
sellers in a Cateris Paribus state (Sukirno,
2010). The supply of coffee according to
(Sukirno, 2010) is influenced by product
prices, namely the cheaper imported
products cause import demand to increase
and the more expensive export products
increase, Production is a business or activity
to increase the use (use value) of an item.
The Function production is the maximum
amount of output that can be produced
from the use of a number of inputs using
certain technologies (Antara, n.d.), and
Other goods, namely for complementary
goods that are substitutes, are the
increasing number of goods substitute
(tea) resulting in increased consumption of
coffee and other goods are complementary
(sugar), namely the high price of sugar
causes low coffee consumption.
Exchange Rate
Exchange rate is the price of a currency
of a country which is measured or
expressed in another currency and is able
to affect exports (Krugman, 1993).
According to (Sukirno, 2010), the increase
in exchange rates against the currencies of
the importing country and exporting
countries may increase the purchasing
power of importing countries resulting in
exports from the country of exporting
increased Economists distinguish the
exchange rate into two, namely the
nominal exchange rate and the real
exchange rate. The real exchange rate is the
price level of goods that can be traded by
a country for goods from other countries
and the nominal exchange rate is the price
of the currency at the existing exchange
rate (Indahsari, 2020).
Research Hypothesis
Effect of Coffee Production on Indonesian
Coffee Exports
There is a significant positive
relationship between coffee production
and coffee exports, so that an increase in
coffee production can increase coffee
exports. Factors that affect coffee
production are the rising coffee price,
which makes the supply of coffee high and
the high cost of substitute goods
(substitute goods such as tea) makes the
motivation of producers to produce coffee
high (Torga & Spers, 2020). This is
supported by research by (Navulan Sari &
Nur Syechalad, 2013)
Effect of Coffee Prices on Indonesian Coffee
Exports
There is a significant negative
relationship between coffee prices and
coffee exports to America so that cheap
coffee prices lead to an increase in coffee
exports. The state will gain competitive
advantage absolute and excellence
comparatively when the price of the export
product is cheap. This is different from
research supported by research by
(Navulan Sari & Nur Syechalad, 2013).
Affects Exchange Rate Indonesian Coffee
Exports
There is a significant negative
563 | Analysis of Factors Affecting Indonesian Coffee Exports in 2001-2018 Using The Vector
Auto regression (VAR) Approach
relationship between the exchange rate
and coffee exports so that the increase in
coffee exports causes an increase in coffee
exports to America. The depreciation of the
rupiah has increased the purchasing power
of Americans to buy Indonesian coffee
because it is cheaper. This is supported by
(Arwa, 2020).
METHODS
The Design and Data Collection Methods
The design and type of research in this
study used quantitative descriptive
methods. This study uses quantitative
methods because it uses secondary data in
the form of numbers, namely the variable
dependent is coffee exports (Y) and the
variables independent are coffee prices
(X1), coffee production (X2) and exchange
rates (exchange rates) (X3). The research
location was in Indonesia from 2001 to
2018. The type of data used in this study
was quantitative secondary data or time
series. Secondary data sources are data
sources that are obtained directly from a
second party using documentation
techniques in the form of documents in the
form of files obtained from the Central
Statistics Agency (BPS) (Badan Pusat
Statistik, 2019).
Data Analysis
1. Classical Assumption Test
According to (Agunbiade &
Adeboye, 2012) states the Classical
Assumption test to produce BLUE data
which consists of: a) Normality test aims
to test normally distributed data using
jarque fallow and prob below 0.05, b)
Multicollinearity test to test the
occurrence of correlation between
variables by looking at the
determination of R must be below 0.85,
c) Autocorrelation test the impact of
time differences on the data using
Durbin Watson. If the DW value is below
-2, it means that there is a positive
autocorrelation. If the DW value is
between -2 to +2, it means that there is
no autocorrelation. If the DW value is
above +2, it means that there is a
negative autocorrelation, and d)
Heteroscedasticity test to determine the
difference in variance in the residual
data. The Uses test the White test so that
if the value is more than 0.05 then there
is a problem with heteroscedasticity.
2. Vector Auto regression (VAR) Test
According to research by (Mukhlis
& Simanjuntak, 2017), the test Vector
Auto regression (VAR) is forecasting on
time series data and analyzing one
variable that is influenced by random
disturbances that have a dynamic
impact. Steps to perform the VAR test
include: a)Test Stationarity is to
determine the root of the root of the
data is examined using the ADF test on
the value of t-statistic ADF equal to test
critical value, b) Test Co-integration
Johanson was to determine the long-
term relationship between variables is
co-integrated when the Maximum
Eigenvalue test and the Trace test must
higher than the critical value, c) The Test
VAR Estimation uses a partial test by
comparing the value of T-Table > T-
Calculate and prob < 0.05 so that there
is a significant relationship, d)Test
Diandra Locita Sari, Sugeng Hadi Utomo, Agus Sumanto | 564
Optimal Lag by looking for the smallest
value on ICE, SC and HQ , e) Causality
Grengger to determine the causal
relationship between variables, f)
Impulse Response (IRF) test to
determine the effect of shock between
one variable affecting other variables,
and g)test varience Decomposition (VD)
is to determine the dynamic forecasting
between variables when there is a
change in variables
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Table 1. Test Descriptive Statistics
PRODUCTION OF
Coffee
EXCHANGE
PRICE OF
Coffee
EXPORT OF
Coffee
Mean
10935.17
22058.87
8472610.
667739.1
Median
9750,000
20775.53
7352772.
676178.5
Maximum
14481.00
40507.51
17191221
716089.0
Minimum
8465,000
5823,920
168512.7
569234.0
Source: The result of sports data by using e-views
Descriptive statistical test results are 1)
Export of coffee is an activity of selling
coffee to the international market and
foreign exchange will be included in the
credit cash in the trade balance (Sukirno,
2004). Based on descriptive statistical tests,
it can be seen that the highest coffee export
value was $1249,520,000 in 2012 and the
lowest coffee export was $188,4930,000 in.
2) Coffee production is an activity to add
value to coffee by utilizing input factors and
technology (Sukirno, 2004). The maximum
coffee production in 2017 was 716089 and
the minimum production in 2001 was
569234. 3) Rising coffee prices led to high
supply and low demand (Sukirno, 2004).
The highest coffee price was 40507,514
rupiah in 2018 and the lowest coffee price
in 2001 was 6705 rupiah. 4) Exchange Rate
(Exchange Rate) is the price of a currency
from a country which is measured or
expressed in another currency (Sukirno,
2011) The highest exchange rate was
14481.00 rupiah in 2017 and the lowest
exchange rate was 8465,000 in 2002.
Data Analysis
565 | Analysis of Factors Affecting Indonesian Coffee Exports in 2001-2018 Using The Vector
Auto regression (VAR) Approach
1. Classical Assumption
Test The classical assumption test
consists of 4 tests to declare the data
BLUE, namely Normality test to find out
the data is normally distributed because
the jarque value is 36,21706 > 10,597
and prob 0,00 < 0,05. There
Multicollinearity because the value
0.896> 0.85 so that a high correlation to
the price of coffee affects the export of
coffee. Positive autocorrelation because
the values of 1.407148 be between 0 and
1.5284, and There is a problem
heteroscedasticity because the test Prob
0, 2085 > 0.05 on the White test.
Figure 1. Test Normality
2. Test Vector Auto regression (VAR)
a. Test Stationarity Data
The test Stationarity data using
the ADF unit root tests (Augmented
Dickey-Fuller Test) to see whether
the data is stationary or not. Coffee
exports, coffee production, coffee
prices, and exchange rates are
stationary because the T-Statistics
are -3.480528, -3.480528 , -4.296144,
and -4.319316 which are lower than
the critical value -3.959148 and -
3.920350 at the first different and
1% level.
Table 2. Test Root
Null Hypothesis: D(EXPORT) has a unit root
Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
0.0232
Test critical values:
1%
level
Null Hypothesis: D(HARGAKOPI) has a unit root
Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
0.0054
Test critical values:
1%
level
Diandra Locita Sari, Sugeng Hadi Utomo, Agus Sumanto | 566
Null Hypothesis: D(COFFEE PRODUCTION) has a unit root
Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
0.0002
Test critical values :
1%
level
Null Hypothesis: D(EXCHANGE) has a unit root
Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
0.0047
Test critical values:
1%
level
Source: The result of sports data by using e-views
b. Co-integration
The Co-integration test is used to
test whether or not the relationship is
using the test Johanson. The result is
that there is a relationship between
coffee prices, coffee production and
exchange rates on coffee exports
because Eigenvalue and Max Eingen
Statistics > Critical Value, namely: a)
None has 0.825726+ 27.95399 >
27.58434.
Table 3. Test Co-integration Johansen
Unrestricted Co-integration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized
Max-
Eigen
0.05
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Statistical
Critical
Value
Prob.**
None *
0.825726
27.95399
27.58434
0.0449
Source: The result of sports data by using e-views
c. Vector Auto regression (VAR) Test.
The result of the test Vector Auto
regression (VAR) is that Coffee
Exports affect the Exchange Rate
because the T-Table value is
[1.87975]> The count is 1.771, b) C
affects the coffee export because the
T-Table value is [3.76039] > The count
is 1.771, and c) C affects the exchange
rate because the value T-Table
[ 2.33358] > Count 1.771
Table 4. Test VAR
Vector Auto regression Estimates
Coffee Exports
Coffee
Production
Coffee
Exchange
Price
Coffee
EXPORTS(-2)
[ 1.51328]
[-0.16349]
[ 1.87975]
[ 1.72366]
567 | Analysis of Factors Affecting Indonesian Coffee Exports in 2001-2018 Using The Vector
Auto regression (VAR) Approach
C
[ 3.76039]
[ 1.22080]
[ 2.33358]]
[ 0.30076]
Source: The result of sports data by using e-views
d. Granger Causality
The result is that coffee
production affects coffee exports
because prob 0.0016 < 0.05 and the
exchange rate affects coffee exports
because prob 0.0054 < 0.05 and all
affects coffee exports with prob
0.0002 < 0.05.
Table 5. Test Granger Causality
VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
Dependent variable: COFFEE EXPORTS
Excluded
Chi-sq
Df
Prob.
Coffee production
12.87995
2
0.0016
Exchange
10.43819
2
0.0054
All
26.07486
6
0.0002
Source: The result of sports data by using e-views
e. Impulse Response Function (IRF)
The results of the test Impulse
Response Function (IRF)are 1) Coffee
exports are influenced by coffee
production, exchange rates and
coffee prices in period 1 because
prob 0.00 < 0.05, 2) Coffee
production is influenced by exchange
rates and coffee prices in period 1
because prob 0.00 < 0.05, and 3)
Exchange rate is affected by coffee
prices in period 1 because prob 0.00
< 0.05.
Table 6. Test Impulse Responses Function
Response of Export Of Coffee:
Period
Coffee
exports
Coffee
production
Exchange
Coffee rates
2496052.
1
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
Response of PRODUKSI KOPI:
Period
Of coffee
exports
Production
coffee
Exchange
Coffee rates
-4414,327
27807.21
1
0.000000
0.000000
Response of Exchange:
Period
Of coffee
Production
Exchange
Price coffee
Diandra Locita Sari, Sugeng Hadi Utomo, Agus Sumanto | 568
export
coffee
1
14.80972
77.33384
957.3450
0.000000
Source: The result of sports data by using e-views
f. Variance Decomposition (VD)
The results of the research are a)
Coffee exports are influenced by
coffee production, exchange rates
and coffee prices in period 1 with
prob 0.00 < 0.05, b) Coffee
production is influenced by exchange
rates and coffee prices in period 1
with prob 0.00 < 0.05, and c) The
exchange rate is influenced by coffee
exports with prob 0.023770 < 0.05
and coffee prices with prob 0.00 <
0.05 in period 1.
Table 7. Test Variance Decomposition
variance decomposition of coffee exports:
period
Se
exports
coffee
production
i
exchange
price
coffee
1
ofof2496052.
100.0000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
variance decomposition of production:
period
Se
coffee
exports
coffee
production
i
exchange
coffee
price
1
28155.41
2.458133
97.54187
0.000000
0.000000
variance decomposition of exchange:
period
Se
coffee
exports
coffee
production
coffee
exchange
price
1
960.5775
0.023770
0.648148
99.32808
0.000000
Source: The result of sports data by using e-views
DISCUSSION
Relationship between Coffee Exports
and Coffee Production
Based on the VAR test, it was found
that coffee production did not affect coffee
exports in periods 1 and 2. The increase in
coffee production did not the impact
The increase in coffee exports is
caused by the high consumption of
Indonesian people so that coffee
production is to meet domestic needs
rather than exports to foreign countries.
This is different from the research of
(Navulan Sari & Nur Syechalad, 2013).
According to research by (Navulan Sari &
Nur Syechalad, 2013) explaining the export
volume of Aceh Arabica coffee is influenced
by the exchange rate, the increase in
Acehnese Arabica coffee production and
overseas coffee prices. According to (Galih
& Setiawina, 2014) research, the increase in
569 | Analysis of Factors Affecting Indonesian Coffee Exports in 2001-2018 Using The Vector
Auto regression (VAR) Approach
the amount of production increases coffee
exports.
Based on the results of the Causality
test Grengger, Impulse Response Function
(IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD)
stated that coffee production affects coffee
exports. The reason is that according to
Ohlin's Helic Theory, Indonesia has a
comparative advantage that is efficient in
production costs so that coffee prices are
cheap (Salvatore, 2014). The results of the
test Impulse Response Function (IRF) and
Variance Decomposition (VD) are that
coffee production is influenced by the
exchange rate and coffee prices in period 1
because the more expensive the price
increases the supply (Sukirno, 2011) .
The Relationship Between Coffee
Exports and Coffee Prices
Based on the VAR test results, it is
known that coffee prices in periods 1 and 2
do not affect coffee exports. The increase in
coffee prices causes a low demand for
coffee because consumers consume tea as
a substitute good (Sukirno, 2004). This is
similar to (Kustiari, 2007) which states that
the decline in coffee exports in Indonesia is
caused by the low value of Indonesian
exports in the United States, Japan and
Germany due to high coffee prices.
Based on the test results of Impulse
Response Function (IRF) and Variance
Decomposition (VD) said coffee prices
affecting coffee production, When the price
of coffee has increased causing
manufacturers are motivated to produce
coffee with cost efficiency of production
(Sukirno, 2004).
Relationship between the Export of
Coffee With Exchange Rate
Based on the results of the VAR test, it
is known that the increase in the exchange
rate (exchange rate) has no effect on the
increase in coffee exports in periods 1 and
2. The depreciation of the rupiah causes a
negative impact in the form of an increase
in coffee prices due to an increase in
production costs caused by an increase in
imported coffee raw materials and an
increase in wages workers (Sukirno, 2004)
This is different from research by (Cahyadi
& Sukarsa, 2014) which explains that rupiah
appreciation and production cost efficiency
can increase paper exports to the United
States.
Based on the results of the Causality
tests Grengger, Impulse Response Function
(IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD), it is
stated that the exchange rate affects coffee
exports because the depreciation of the
rupiah increases exports. Based on the
results of the Impulse Response Function
(IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD) it is
stated that the exchange rate is influenced
by coffee prices and coffee exports. The
decline in the exchange rate was influenced
by low coffee exports due to high coffee
prices.
CONCLUSIONS
Coffee exports were not significantly
affected by coffee production, coffee prices
and the exchange rate using VAR. result
Grangger's is that coffee production affects
coffee exports and the exchange rate
affects coffee exports. Test IRF and VD is the
coffee production is influenced by coffee
prices and the exchange rate, the price of
Diandra Locita Sari, Sugeng Hadi Utomo, Agus Sumanto | 570
coffee affects the production of coffee,
coffee exports and the exchange rate and
the exchange rate is influenced by the price
of coffee and coffee exports. As for advice
because coffee production affects coffee
exports from Indonesia then, the
government should do a vertical
integration from upstream (people's
plantations) to downstream (industries) to
increase export expansion. And also
provides various business funding
programs to facilitate capital through
financial inclusion and partnerships with
the private sector so as to maintain quality
coffee production without having to worry
about production costs that are feared to
suddenly increase, and there is also the
development of integrated smallholder
plantation development so as to increase
production. Coffee is increasing and also
quality without being affected by price and
exchange rate.
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