JRSSEM 2022, Vol. 02, No. 3, 391 402
E-ISSN: 2807 - 6311, P-ISSN: 2807 - 6494
DOI: 10.36418/jrssem.v2i03.292 https://jrssem.publikasiindonesia.id/index.php/jrssem
RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SPORTING EVENTS
Zemikael Getu
1
Sisay Mengistu
2
1
Sports Science faculty, Hawassa University, Etiopia
2
Sports Science faculty, Hawassa University, Etiopia
*
e-mail: zemikaelgetu@yahoo.com, sisaymengistu@yahoo.com
*Correspondence: zemikaelgetu@yahoo.com
Submitted
: 12 October 2022
Revised
: 21 October 2022
Accepted
: 30 October 2022
Abstract: Risk management is one of the primary responsibilities of event organizers, yet so often
ignored or misunderstood, particularly by inexperienced planners, because, like my now-paranoid
event-goers, one can’t envision what one has not been exposed to they don’t know what they
don’t know. This article will show you how and why risk management is a fundamental component
of event management, and introduce you to the functions of risk management within the overall
field of events management and the tools you may use to perform these functions effectively. The
research is underpinned by a constructivist approach that purposes scientific knowledge as a
human creation made available with material and cultural resources. Research adopting this
approach builds and generates theory about the phenomenon through participants' own
words, allowing respondents to express their attitudes, beliefs, or behaviors in the absence of
preconceived notions. Through this combination of legislative provisions, event organizers are
encouraged to work with all actors involved with the event to develop a framework that
facilitates the effective allocation of risk management responsibilities amongst the various
actors by each actor’s ability to control the activities that give rise to those risks.
Keywords: Risk Management, Sporting Events, Organizers.
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DOI: 10.36418/jrssem.v2i03.292 https://jrssem.publikasiindonesia.id/index.php/jrssem
INTRODUCTION
The contemporary environment of
sports organizations is very turbulent, with
increasingly complex and random changes
and many risks with a significant impact. In
professional literature, such an
environment is indicated by the phrase’s
hypercharge, hyper competitors, and
hyper-turbulence, and increasingly also as a
“risky society”. Such a “risky” environment is
not limited only to health and
environmental risks but also includes a
series of interlinked changes in
contemporary social life changes in work
patterns, increasingly greater insecurity of
the workplace well as insecurity in daily life,
a decrease of the impact of tradition and
habits, the collapsing of traditional forms
and family patterns, etc. All this contributes
to a state of affairs in which attending
sports competitions today is much riskier
than earlier. Such insanity and
unpredictability of changes have led to new
paradigms for organizations and new
management paradigms which are also
radically reflected in the area of sports and
sports competitions. Thus, “a new concept,
new technologies, and a, nw lifestyle
demand a new management” (Mašić, 2001,
p. 2) (Ilić, Bošković, Radovanović, & Practice,
2013).
The aim of the research
This research aims to contribute to the
recognition of the risks of contemporary
social reality, the assessment of its possible
impact on sports events, and to indicate the
significance and way of application of
tested functions of managing risk
management in sports events.
Research Questions
1. What unique risks are associated with
sports events, for organizers,
participants, sponsors, guests, and the
general public?
2. Describe the main elements in a health
and safety plan for sports events.
Include a discussion of how site
capacity is important and how it can be
determined.
3. Define “risk management” for sports
event managers. Give examples of the
special risks for sports events.
4. Outline a risk management plan
including generic strategies for dealing
with risks.
5. What are the main principles of alcohol
risk management? What related
training is needed for staff and
volunteers?
Distinguish between crowd
management and crowd control. Give
examples.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The research is underpinned by a
constructivist approach that purposes
scientific knowledge as a human creation
made available with material and cultural
resources (Bloor, 1976; Golinski, 1998).
Constructivism is based upon a relativist
belief that there are multiple socially
constructed truths and realities, with no
rational basis for judging one perspective
better than another (Fay, 1996; Rubin &
Rubin, 1995). Research adopting this
approach builds and generates theory
393 | Risk Management For Sporting Events
about the phenomenon through
participants' own words, allowing
respondents to express their attitudes,
beliefs, or behaviors in the absence of
preconceived notions (Golinski, 1998;
Jennings, 2001) (Reid & Ritchie, 2011).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Risks are associated with sports events, for
organizers, participants, sponsors, guests,
and the general public
The process by which risk
management is interpreted and executed
by organizing committees and major
stakeholders of events is becoming
increasingly important, especially in one-
time large-scale international sporting
events, because of the increased
international media coverage, higher
insurance costs, and the possibility of
events such as terrorist attacks (Leopkey &
Parent, 2009).
Within the last 20 years, the hosting of
sporting events has become an increasingly
popular goal for many communities
(Emery, 2001; Whitson & MacIntosh, 1996).
This is due to the potential for exponential
ROI (return on investment) and legacy
benefits such as new facilities and
improved infrastructure, increased
community spirit, and
national/international recognition (Ritchie,
1984). Events include cultural events and
festivals such as Carabana and Mardi Gras,
and sports tournaments such as the FIFA
(Federation Internationale de Football
Association) World Cup (Watt, 1998). For
large-scale sporting events, in particular,
academic and popular press books deal
with many issues such as economics,
tourism, and marketing (e.g., Getz, 2005;
Preuss, 2004) (Leopkey & Parent, 2009).
Classical risk management stems from
the project management research literature
(Chappelet, 2001). Prior research has shown
that it is possible to approach risk
management in a variety of ways (cf.
Wideman, 1992; Boehm, 1991). However,
most researchers (e.g., Wideman, 1992; Raz
& Michael, 2001) agree that risk
management takes on a cyclical approach,
similar (plus or minus a step) to the Project
Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)
approach (for additional information on
PMBOK visit www.pmi.org), where risk
management is essentially made up of four
phases: identification, assessment,
response, and the documentation of risk
(Wideman, 1992). It is also a common
assumption that risk management
continues throughout the project,
including the planning, execution,
completion, and wrap-up of stages of the
event (Raz & Michael, 2001). The
overarching goal of project risk
management is to identify risks and
develop strategies to reduce or mitigate
them (Wideman, 1992) (Leopkey & Parent,
2009).
Using stakeholder theory (see
Clarkson, 1995; Freeman, 1984; Frooman,
1999; Jones, & Wicks, 1999; Logsdon,
Wood, & Benson, 2000; Mitchell, Agle, &
Wood, 1997, Phillips, 2003; Wolfe, & Putler,
2002) to study risk management issues in
sporting events allows for the examination
of the topic from both sides of the
equation, i.e., from the organizing
committee’s and the stakeholders’
perspectives, and because it allows for the
inclusion of a variety of literature.
Researchers have identified many possible
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stakeholders for a focal organization or
organizing committee. Clarkson (1995)
identified employees, shareholders,
customers, suppliers, and the public as
potential stakeholders of an organization.
Ritchie (1984), during his research on
mega-events, stated that the local
populace, local government, and local
businesses are all key stakeholders in
events. Potential stakeholders proposed by
Emery (2001) included international and
national governing bodies, organizing
committees, media, and sponsors.
(Leopkey & Parent, 2009).
Health and safety plan for sports events &
Importance of site capacity
Responsibility for health and safety
starts with the event owners or board of
directors and extends through all
management functions. In larger events,
and at event venues, a specific manager or
safety officermight be required. This work
is closely related to risk management and
security (Getz, 2004).
A very useful manual (“The Event
Safety Guide”, revised 1999) on health and
safety planning for music events has been
prepared in the United Kingdom by the
Health and Safety Executive of their central
government. In the UK and other
jurisdictions, it is a requirement of law for
many events and facilities to produce a
policy and plan for health and safety, and
there are government inspectors to ensure
compliance with all pertinent laws and
regulations (Getz, 2004).
Every type of event and event setting
requires such a plan, and the general
elements of the planning /management
process include (Getz, 2004):
commitment at all levels to health
and safety (make it part of the event
mission statement).
ongoing risk assessment (what are
the threats?) .
health a safety policy and
procedures.
management systems to implement
the policy and procedures,
including monitoring and
enforcement mechanisms.
evaluation and revision process
Health and safety management
must occur over the full “life-cycle”
of the event, starting with its
concept stage and ending only with
the termination of the event
organization. Consider the different
issues that arise at each stage:
Concept: does the event entail
specific health and safety risks? are
they acceptable?
Long-range planning: includes risk
assessment.
Site or facility development:
construction and delivery hazards;
competence of the contractors and
the workforce; quality and reliability
of the infrastructure; impacts on the
environment and community.
Staffing: hiring the right people;
health and safety training for staff
and volunteers;
The event: supervision of food and
beverage, sanitation, and other
essential services; crowd and traffic
management; security; emergency
procedures; comfort and health
stations and related personnel.
395 | Risk Management For Sporting Events
Shut-down and termination:
deconstruction and materials
removal; residual site.
contamination and cleanup; site
security; final evaluations.
Indoor venues will have an assigned
capacity, with the maximum number of
persons determined in advance by fire or
other authorities. For outdoor concert sites,
the Health and Safety Executive (1999)
suggested that 0.5 square meters be
available per person. An additional
technical factor is the ease of entry and exit.
Flow rates for entrances and exits should be
estimated, both for normal and emergency
conditions, resulting in an estimate of the
“minimum evacuation time”. Additional
consideration must be given to persons
with special accessibility needs, such as
those in wheelchairs or who must be
carried (e.g., babies) (Getz, 2004).
Technical risk factors will lead to the
designation of a safe capacity, and on this
point, it is undoubtedly better to err on the
side of safety than to attempt to cram more
people into a venue. Beyond the technical
risk considerations, organizers should also
assure that the event experience is not
diminished by over-crowding the site. For
example, will everyone in a huge audience
be able to see and hear performers? Will
rubbing shoulders with other event-goers
add to the atmosphere? (Getz, 2004).
Risk management for sports event
managers
‘Risk management is the overall
process of assessing and controlling risks
within an organizational setting and
includes the subprocesses of risk
assessment and risk mitigation. In
discussing the principles of risk
management, it is necessary to define the
terms used. A ‘hazard’ or ‘risk factoris a
condition, object, or situation that may be
a potential source of harm to people, and
‘risk’ is the probability or likelihood that a
hazard will have an impact on these people
(Fuller & Drawer, 2004).
Risk management is an essential
element of a coach’s skill set (Ferrero, 2007)
and, reflecting this central role, the topic
plays a small but significant part in the vast
majority of coach education programs (cf.
British Canoe Union, 2007). For the outdoor
professional, however, risk management is
a more subtle and wider-ranging skill
(Collins & Collins, 2012). This distinction
presents challenges for the Adventure
Sports Coach (ASC) who must optimally
manage the inherent risks associated with
Adventure Sports (AS), such as rock
climbing, mountaineering, sea kayaking,
white water kayaking, canoeing, and
caving, against the longer term
developmental needs and shorter term
stated goals of clients (Collins & Collins,
2013).
A risk management plan including generic
strategies
This section outlines the risk
management process and contents of a risk
management plan(Getz, 2004).
1: Identification of risk fields
One of the foundations of risk
management is “foreseeability”, and it is a
key element in determining negligence
(Ammon and Fried 1998). Event and facility
managers must draw on experience, the
experience of others, and systematic
determination of possible risks. They may
occur in each of these major risk “fields”:
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Financial: loss of revenue sources, theft
and loss of assets, including data, name,
and logos; costs exceeding projections;
lawsuits and other unanticipated costs.
Management: the risk of goal
displacement, takeovers, or management
failure.
Health and safety hazards for
organizers, participants, guests, and the
general public: accidents (at and outside
the event), health problems, fire, crime,
terrorism, social disturbances, and
unanticipated emergencies.
Environmental: negative impacts on
the environment, community, and
economy; natural hazards (earthquakes,
floods, etc.).
2: Identification of specific risks, and
the consequences, within each field
The task analysis” performed for
project planning provides a starting point
for managers and staff to identify and
evaluate risks. Each task requires certain
actions, sometimes physical and
sometimes mental, which all have potential
implications. As the event takes shape and
more detail is added to the task breakdown
and schedule, greater focus will be possible
on risks.
Scenario-making is useful and can be
done quite well at staff meetings. Start with
known or possible problems and risks (e.g.
what happened at other events?) and work
backward to see how they can be avoided.
This exercise will help shape the task
analysis, schedule, and program.
Development of a risk evaluation form or
spreadsheet for each event and sub-unit is
recommended.
3: Assignment of the probability of
risks occurring (e.g., low, medium, high)
Evaluate the probability of occurrence.
How likely is it that each risk will
materialize? Group the risks into high,
medium, and low probability categories,
but do not assume that low probability
hazards will not occur!
4: Estimation of the potential
magnitude of impacts.
Not all risks will necessarily result in
losses or problems, so try to anticipate the
positive and negative outcomes of each
potential circumstance and the magnitude
of the consequence. Those with potential
negative and severe consequences require
special consideration. Within each risk field,
major disasters could occur, and they
should be ranked according to potential
magnitude from multiple perspectives.
Protecting the organization and its assets
might come into conflict with protecting
the environment or the public, so beware of
bias in this assessment.
5: Ranking of risks, from high to low
priority
Which ones have to be dealt with?
Combine the probability of occurrence with
an evaluation of the potential severity of
each, especially those for which the
organizers will likely be held responsible.
High-priority risks have to be dealt with at
once.
6: Identification of strategic options to
deal with risks; selection of appropriate
strategies:
According to Berlonghi (1990), there
are several generic strategies for events to
follow:
Avoidance
: Managers must seek to
anticipate risks, determine their probability
of occurrence, the severity of their impacts,
and ways to avoid or reduce them. Where
397 | Risk Management For Sporting Events
risks are too great, or cannot be handled,
the hazard (such as a program activity or
venue) should be eliminated.
Reduction
: Some hazards can be
minimized or kept to an acceptable level
through better management, training, or
operations. In truth, most event managers
live with certain risks, but this decision
should not be taken without some form of
ongoing assessment and reduction
strategy in place.
Reduce the severity of damage or
losses:
Assuming that problems will occur,
the manager must be prepared to cope.
The event must have emergency response
procedures. Thefts occur, but the number
and severity can be minimized. Weather is
unpredictable, so contingency plans are
necessary.
Diffusion
: Spreading risks among
stakeholders or over time and space can be
effective. For example, if sponsors or other
organizations are involved, it is logical that
risks should be spread among all parties,
rather than being absorbed by the event
organization alone. However, logic might
not convince the other parties to accept a
share of the risks. Vendors and suppliers
can usually be required to share in the risk
management process and provide their
insurance.
Re-allocation
: In some cases, the risks
can be re-allocated completely, as where a
parent body or municipality absorbs risks
for specific events. Any group under
contract to the event can be required to
absorb their risks and take out independent
or co-insurance.
Insurance
: Insurance is necessary to
protect against risks that materialize.
Insurance companies increasingly demand
that managers demonstrate that they have
a risk management strategy in place, and
these companies might even give
appropriate advice. Liability laws and the
need for types and amounts of insurance
vary widely among countries and cannot be
generalized. Event managers must
investigate their needs carefully, or rely on
government agencies or event associations
to provide advice.
7: Implementation of strategies and
evaluation of results:
Implement strategies by formulating
an action plan, training appropriate staff
and volunteers, and rehearsing crucial
operations (e.g., emergency response).
Establish a formal evaluation system for the
event and assign responsibilities. Aim to
constantly improve the process.
Principles of alcohol risk management &
training for staff and volunteers
Events featuring alcohol consumption
can foster a feeling among some patrons
that anything goes. Even when
consumption is regulated and over-
indulgence is not a problem, events can still
face lawsuits arising from uncontrolled
underage drinking (see Emmets, 1995:67).
Consequently, every event serving alcohol
(or likely to attract drinkers) needs an
alcohol risk management system (Getz,
2004).
In British Columbia (Ministry of
Attorney General, 1992:11) a public inquiry
into problems at special events revealed
that alcohol was the top public-raised issue,
including the operation of beer gardens,
underage drinking, the transport of alcohol,
inadequate fines for violators, and unruly
behavior due to drinking. Inadequate site
control and the checking of cars and
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persons for liquor were also problems
identified. Additional costs and risks
associated with alcohol consumption
include(Getz, 2004):
personal injuries and criminal acts
owing to drunkenness
additional insurance costs against
the possibility of lawsuits (e.g., if the
event is held partially or wholly
responsible for an accident, injury,
or criminal act by serving alcohol)
additional security and clean-up
costs
major financial losses arising from
lawsuits
vandalism
image problems and resultant lost
patronage
attracting the wrong types;
repelling families and other
segments
Event risk managers are keenly aware
of the problem of alcohol at events. The
event risk managers first line of defense
against alcohol-related problems is often to
meet with the event’s hosts, hostesses, or
sponsors before the event. During this
meeting, the event risk manager should
provide checklists to prospective clients.
Event risk managers must develop a risk
plan called a “lightning plan” (what you
would do if lightning were to strike). Before
an event in which alcohol is served (Tarlow,
2002):
Determine who is in charge of the
event.
Is there an alcohol service
manager? Make certain that you
can identify the chain of command
for the event.
Find out what plans are in place.
It is
as important to know what plans do
not exist and what plans do exist.
What has been overlooked? Who
forgot what? These are essential
questions.
Determine how similar this alcohol-
related event is to other events of a
similar size and demographic
composition.
Having a benchmark
can be an excellent predictor of
future problems. Do not be afraid to
consult with other event risk
managers and always keep a written
list of essential facts and incidents
after each of your major events.
Evaluate current alcohol
management rules.
Review signage.
Be careful of what
you write on signs or other sources
of information regarding the
serving of alcohol. We live in a very
litigious society, and what you write
may be held against you in court.
Consider all risks.
Event risk
managers are often as concerned
about risks associated with alcohol
that have a low probability of
occurring but whose consequences
are grave as they are about high-
probability risks. First, never see
each risk as unique unto itself.
Instead, assume that there is an
interaction between all risks. Thus,
each risk that is added to the
equation increases the total risk
factor.
Use experience with issues of
intoxication
. If the situation “feels”
wrong, take the time to listen to
your feelings. It is never a mistake to
err on the side of prudence.
399 | Risk Management For Sporting Events
Learn from other events.
Alcohol
problems at events tend to be
similar at many different events. A
college spring break, however, is
very different from a bankers
meeting. Keep a careful sociological
profile of these events and use
these profiles to help in your
planning. Be careful never to use
racial profiling and never assume
that a person is guilty simply
because he or she falls into a
particular demographic grouping.
Gain knowledge from other sources.
For example, visit different Web
sites to see what your colleagues
are doing about the serving of
alcohol at events.
Examine current insurance policies.
Insurance policies dictate what you
can and cannot do at an event.
Make certain that you speak to the
event’s insurance agent. What
insurance restrictions and
exclusions are enforced? What
coverage do you have?
Use common sense.
Often the best
risk management is common sense.
Part of the job of event risk
managers is to apply their common
sense to the risk situation.
Don’t get angry or feel superior.
It is
all too easy to see a group of people
having a good time” and start to
feel superior to them. Remember
that your task is to help these
people have a good time with the
least possible amount of risk to life
or property.
Event risk managers must also be
aware of the dram shop laws, based
on the Supreme Court decision in
Samson v. Smith (1989). Event risk
managers should understand how
these laws may impact them and
should consult a professional for
legal advice. The basic premise of
these laws is that if person X gives
too much alcohol to person Y who
then, in an intoxicated state, hurts
himself or another person, then X
can be held liable. There are several
legal points that person Y, the
plaintiff, will have to prove,
including that the injury was a result
of Y’s drinking and that the alcohol
provider knew that the plaintiff was
intoxicated (Tarlow, 2002).
Following are some of the methods
used to contain the problem of
alcohol consumption(Tarlow, 2002):
Conduct the event at a location
where there are people trained to
serve alcohol.
Understand and implement
effective crowd control.
Make certain that carding is
coordinated by the organization’s
personnel.
Make sure that monitoring is in
place so that underage people are
not involved.
Do not have an open bar. Open bars
encourage drinking; cash bars allow
for greater control and often limit a
person’s ability to consume more
than he or she should.
Price the alcoholic drinks
expensively so that guests drink
less.
Make certain there are designated
drivers at the event.
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Maintain a list of who is and who is
not 21 years of age.
Crowd management & Crowd control
Martella et al. (2016), Williams
(2013) and Rahmat et al. (2011) refer to
crowd management as a technique to
manage people involving seating
arrangements, crowd behavior,
demographical criteria of the people
involved, emphasizing collaborative
effort between people involved, and as
well as the duration of the event. The
objective of crowd management is
likewise a safety concern and demands
specific attention, which necessitates
careful observation by the event
organizer. An event manager must
develop hard and soft tools that help
monitor and control the individual's
movement and behavior within the
crowd. Two types of crowd control can
be adopted: soft crowd control and
hard crowd control. Soft crowd control
is one of the types of crowd control that
reduces the ability or effectiveness of
the target's actions but does not
entirely prevent them from doing them.
On the other hand, hard crowd control
is a type of crowd control that
completely prevents the target from
taking specific actions, like moving or
casting abilities (Kamarudin, Abd Aziz,
& Ramely, 2022).
According to Fruin (1993), crowd
management and crowd control are
synergistic instead of incompatible.
Crowd management focuses more on
practical strategies and systematic
planning of movement and assembly,
while crowd control focuses more on
reactive strategies and restriction and
the constraint of action. Both crowd
management and crowd control are
influenced by time, space, information,
and energy. Crowd management and
control are becoming significant issues
in the event industry due to this
massive increase in sports events or
outdoor events. Crowd management is
never can be missed in the event
planning process. Small mistakes in
planning would change a great return
into a total loss in sports events
(Mapjabil et al., 2015). A study found
that crowd management in sports
tourism events has increased in
popularity due to their unique
characteristics, and therefore, it needs
particularly successful planning
because it will also increase the average
crowd numbers. Improper crowd
management also can quickly turn a
peaceful event into tragedy (Martella et
al., 2016). Bjelac and Radovanovic
(2003) also agreed that sports events
require good crowd management
practices because of their special
characteristics (Kamarudin et al., 2022).
In the context of crowd
management, the spread of non-
compliant behavior can have a severe
impact on crowd safety if safety rules
are not visibly enforced or crowd
control is not maintained. For example,
others may follow suit if the response
from those controlling the crowd is
slow, weak, or non-existent. The
uncontrolled crowd flow may lead to
overcrowding and other related
hazards. In the early stages of an
emergency, crowd behavior can be
influenced by individuals who appear to
401 | Risk Management For Sporting Events
be experts or know what to do. An
individual or group of people taking
decisive action such as leaving a nearby
exit and outwardly dismissing a
warning as a false alarm) can trigger a
widespread response among the
crowd. The team members of staff
might be allocated to evacuate a venue
or another area (Kamarudin et al.,
2022).
As early as 1995, Berlonghi has
discussed eleven elements when the
organizer intends to implement crowd
management. They are the size of the
crowd, crowd capacity, demographics
of the crowd, and location of the event,
day and time of operations, schedule of
event activities, weather conditions,
seating arrangements, and crowd
movement patterns, the density of
crowd in various locations as well as
specific operations such as
transportation, parking, ticket selling,
and admission control. Other than that,
Martella et al. (2016) and also opined
crowd management should include
thorough planning and preparation,
effective communication with the
whole crowd (audio and visual),
coordinating and collaborative effort
between all agencies involved, led by
skillful and experienced personnel in
crowd management, as well as
leadership and guidance to initiate
crowd management emergencies
(Kamarudin et al., 2022).
Besides, Williams (2013) also
recommended two significant steps in
strategizing crowd management. These
steps include early and often pre-
planning meetings with all stakeholders
and performing risk-hazards analysis of
the event venues. Risk-hazards analysis
should consist of unique and
contingency plans according to the
types of events. The event organizer
who intends to manage the crowd also
needs to be aware of the individual's
diversity and complexity. Kingshott
(2014) mentioned that each individual
possesses different attitudes, social,
racial, religious, cultural composition,
and various psychological dimensions.
(Kamarudin et al., 2022).
CONCLUSIONS
Safely staging a major sporting event
involves numerous actors, each with its
particular role, and each reliant to some
extent for the proper performance of that
role, on other actors properly performing
their roles and responsibilities. WHS laws
address these symbiotic relationships by
first imposing concurrent, overlapping, and
non-delegable WHS duties on nearly every
actor involved with organizing and staging
the event, and then requiring the holders of
these concurrent and overlapping duties to
cooperate to ensure their activities are
undertaken safely and without health risks.
Through this combination of legislative
provisions, event organizers are
encouraged to work with all actors involved
with the event to develop a framework that
facilitates the effective allocation of risk
management responsibilities amongst the
various actors by each actors ability to
control the activities that give rise to those
risks (Windholz, 2016).
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© 2022 by the authors. Submitted
for possible open access publication
under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY SA) license
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/).